Natural and Environmental Disasters

In 2006, the UNDP released a Disaster Risk Profile report on the Maldives. This was followed by a national strategy in 2009, entitled Strategic National Action Plan for Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation 2010-2020, presented to the UNISDR.

The frequency of natural disasters in the Maldives is low, and a national strategy was only formulated after the 2004 Tsunami. However, global climate change is expected to increase the incidence and severity of natural and environmental disasters in the Maldives. Greater extremes of drying and heavy rainfall are projected for the Maldives, increasing the risk of droughts and floods, especially during El Niño events. Tropical cyclones are predicted to be enhanced in intensity by 10 to 20%. An increased risk of storm tides is also predicted, which, considering the Maldives’ average height above sea level of 1.5 meters, is likely to cause regular tidal inundations in most islands even at the medium prediction as well as exacerbate beach erosion. The small size of the islands and their low elevation makes human settlements defenseless against severe weather events and storm surges. Since housing designs, structures and materials are not adapted to flooding, this vulnerability is exacerbated. Predictions indicate tidal inundations taking place recurrently on almost all islands. Although the Maldives lies outside of the tropical cyclone zone due to its proximity to the equator, there have been incidents in the past in which cyclonic storms have passed over the Maldives and the probability of such events occurring in the future remains. Historical patterns suggest that the northern Maldives islands will be more exposed to these cyclonic storms than the southern islands.