Global Warming Could Threaten Human, Ecosystem Health
By Cat Lazaroff
WASHINGTON, DC, December 13, 2000 (ENS) - The climate changes
associated with global warming are likely to be hardest on the
elderly, the infirm and the poor, particularly in developing
countries, shows a new report by the Pew Center on Global Climate
Change. The study finds that the United States may have
sufficient resources to prevent the worst possibilities - but
warns that poorer countries may not fare as well.
A second study, also released by the Pew Center, finds that
global climate change will cause major changes in natural
ecosystems - and the plants and animal communities that make up
these ecosystems - across the United States. The Pew Center is a
nonprofit group created in 1998 by the Pew Charitable Trusts, one
of the United States' largest philanthropies.
GLOBAL WARMING RAISES HEALTH RISKS
Climate change - largely caused by greenhouse gas emissions from
human sources - raises the possibility that elevated
temperatures, air contaminants and changes in precipitation
patterns could pose increased health risks.
Public health experts Dr. John Balbus of The George Washington
University and Dr. Mark Wilson of The University of Michigan
sifted through the evidence of climate related health risks.
The researchers found that if climate change results in more heat
waves and air pollution episodes, certain populations are likely
to suffer more than others, particularly the elderly, the infirm,
and the poor.
While there are indications that a global warming trend may
increase the risks of certain water borne and animal carried
diseases, sanitation and public health systems in the U.S. are
generally sufficient to prevent these diseases from dramatically
increasing in incidence or distribution, the study found.
However, many developing countries lack the resources and public
health systems needed to prevent such outbreaks.
The report says government officials around the world need to
maintain and strengthen public health systems. The researchers
recommend that health officials increase their surveillance for
potential disease outbreaks, and improve hygiene, water quality
and control of animal disease carriers like mosquitoes and rats.
The links between climate and human health are complex and not
fully understood. But the researchers warn that uncertainty about
adverse health effects should not be interpreted as certainty of
no adverse health effects.
The potential for unexpected events - such as sudden changes in
climate or the emergence of new diseases - cannot be ruled out,
the report says.
"There have been a lot of claims and counter claims about the
potential human health impacts of global climate change," said
Pew Center president Eileen Claussen. "An honest assessment must
acknowledge that the United States can probably avoid the worst
scenarios of disease outbreaks from climate related causes."
"At the same time, we should pay more attention to the climate
related health risks faced by people in less developed countries,
and by the most vulnerable people in our own country," Claussen
said. "And we need to beef up health surveillance systems to
guard against the possible emergence of unexpected health
threats."
ECOSYSTEMS, WILDLIFE FACE THREATS FROM GLOBAL WARMING
The Pew Center commissioned two ecologists, Dr. Jay Malcolm of
the University of Toronto and Dr. Louis Pitelka of the University
of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, to review evidence
of potential ecosystem effects of global warming.
Their report describes the "very real possibility" that global
warming will disrupt the integrity of many of the land based
ecosystems on which humans depend. Ecosystems provide humans such
valuable goods and services as foods, raw materials, recreational
opportunities, clean air and water, and erosion control.
The importance of ecosystems extends beyond economics and
tangible benefits, with many people placing a high value on the
spiritual and aesthetic role nature plays in their lives, the
report notes. Despite the crucial roles of terrestrial
ecosystems, they are increasingly threatened by the impacts of a
growing human population, through habitat destruction and air and
water pollution, and now as a result of global climate change.
"This report describes how climate change is likely to profoundly
alter the natural environment," said Pew Center president
Claussen. "It underscores the point that domestic and
international action to deal with climate change is needed sooner
rather than later."
As the earth warms, the distribution of land based ecosystems
will change as plants and animals follow the shifting climate,
the researchers found. For example, the eastern United States
will likely lose many of its oak and maple forests as climate
zones shift northward.
Sugar maples, so much a part of northeastern states such as
Vermont, are likely to be replaced by oaks, the study notes. Some
habitats - such as those found in the high elevations in
mountainous regions of the West - are likely to shrink in a
warming world.
Both the amount and rate of anticipated warming pose threats to
the nation's biological diversity, the report found. The rate of
anticipated climate change is estimated to be ten times that seen
in the last Ice Age. As a result, certain species may face
dwindling numbers and even extinction if they are unable to
migrate fast enough to keep up with the changing climate.
Climate change is likely to alter the quantity and quality of the
various goods and services that ecosystems provide. For example,
climate change is likely to affect the ability of ecosystems to
filter air and water pollutants and to control soil erosion, the
report indicates.
Modeling studies estimate that the productivity of plants could
change little or could increase substantially. However, these
productivity changes will not be uniform and some regions could
see declines.
While plant productivity may rise, so could decomposition and,
with it, the release of carbon to the atmosphere.
The effects of climate change on ecosystems must be considered in
the context of a range of human caused impacts on ecosystems, the
researchers recommend. Climate change is likely to be
particularly damaging for ecological communities and species that
have suffered the greatest disruption from human development, the
researchers said.
Natural ecosystems already under stress because of air and water
pollution will have diminished capacity to adapt to climate
change. Likewise, habitat destruction and fragmentation will
lessen the chances that species will be able to migrate to more
suitable climates and habitats.
Because ecosystems are inherently complex, it is hard to predict
exactly how ecosystems will respond to climate change, the
researchers warn. By protecting natural systems and biodiversity
in general, government and community leaders can support the
natural ability of ecosystems to adapt to a changing world.
Complete copies of both reports are available at:
http://www.pewclimate.org.
SOURCE: Environment News Service (ENS)
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