CO2 emissions seen rising well above targets - IEA
UK: November 22, 2000
LONDON - Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions which contribute to
unwanted climate change will grow at a rate of about two percent
a year from now to 2020, despite efforts to reduce them, the
International Energy Agency said yesterday.
The IEA presented its World Energy 2000 Outlook at the current
United Nations Climate Change conference held in the Hague.
World energy use is expected to grow at a similar rate, with
fossil fuels providing 90 percent of the world's primary
energy, the IEA said.
"These projections show how much more needs to be done
in the energy sector if developed and transition countries
are to meet their commitments to limit greenhouse gas
emissions under the terms of the Kyoto Protocol," the Agency
said.
Most of the increases will come in developing countries,
which will account for more than two thirds of the rise, while
power generation itself would contribute for one third of total
CO2 emissions rise, it said.
The IEA's forecasts also showed that at current growth rate,
North American emissions would be 42 percent higher than
the Kyoto targets by 2010, while in the OECD-Pacific
region they would be 29 percent higher, and 18 percent
above target in Western Europe, the IEA said.
Industrialised nations committed to cut their emissions under a
plan agreed in Kyoto in 1997, but none of them have yet legally
bound themselves to the targets.
On emissions trading, proposed as a means of encouraging
nations to cut CO2 emissions, the IEA said that trading
could lower the cost of meeting Kyoto obligations by
between 29 and 63 percent, depending on each country's
domestic circumstances.
"Trading would produce major revenue flows for Eastern
Europe and the Former Soviet Union which would be the
main sellers of emission credits," it said.
Under the system proposed, each nation which had emissions below
target, could sell a "credit" representing the difference between
emissions target and actual emission levels, thus earning money
for being below target.
The IEA added that a concentrated effort in the transport
area could stabilise transport emissions after 2010 but not
before, while in the power sector, only small reductions
could be achieved by introducing emission reduction programmes.
"Because of the long term nature of the power sector, none
of them can be put in place rapidly," it said.
Representatives at the U.N conference in the Hague have until
Friday to find a solution to break a deadlock between the United
States and the European Union on greenhouse gases reduction
targets.
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