A Bleak Outlook for Hague Climate Talks
14 November, 2000
Whatever is decided by world governments meeting at the latest
climate change negotiations in The Hague, it will already be too
late for Tebua Tarawa, a small island in the Pacific nation of
Kiribati. Until a decade ago, it was a favourite spot for
fishermen to moor their boats and quench their thirst on coconut
water. Now Tebua Tarawa is submerged - swallowed up by rising
seas.
As global evidence mounts that climate change is already
happening, the 160 governments meeting in The Hague are under
serious pressure to act. But the latest indications are that
despite the growing sense of crisis, polluting nations - led by
the United States - are still determined to drag their feet and
refuse to curb "greenhouse gas" emissions.
Although many observers agree that the future of the planet
itself is at stake, the Hague talks seem certain to become mired
in the kind of tortuous bureaucratic wrangling which has already
given United Nations meetings a bad name. And with the COP6
(the sixth Convention Of the Parties to the Framework
Convention on Climate Change, agreed at the Rio Earth
Summit in 1992) talks due to end on 25 November, there is
scant time for political horse-trading.
The talks are aimed at agreeing ways to implement the 1997 Kyoto
Protocol, which committed industrialised countries to reducing
greenhouse gas emissions by 5.2 per cent from 1990 levels by
2012 at the latest. Although leading scientists have already
stated that a 60 per cent cut in global warming gases is
essential, even the tiny step agreed in Kyoto looks too much for
some of the worst polluters to contemplate.
Backed by the powerful car and oil lobbies, the United States is
determined to avoid making cuts in fossil fuel consumption, which
it believes would harm its booming economy. Instead, it wants to
be allowed to buy 'emissions credits' from other countries,
and to factor in 'carbon sinks' - forests and soils which it
claims are absorbing carbon dioxide, the main "greenhouse
gas".
But many other countries, led by the European Union, argue that
the only sure way to reduce carbon dioxide in the atmosphere
is to reduce pollution at source, and point out that the
science underpinning 'carbon sinks' is at best highly uncertain.
Environmental groups point out that with only 4 per cent of
the world's population and 24 per cent of its carbon
emissions, the United States has a moral duty to act. At the same
time, thousands of protesters are gathering outside the
Hague convention centre, determined to stop the negotations
being "turned into another set of free-trade talks".
As the government delegations bicker about the small print, the
latest scientific evidence makes hair-raising reading. A recent
report by the UK's Meteorological Office calculates that as the
world warms, tropical forests will die off and soils will release
vast amounts of stored carbon. These 'positive feedbacks'
will increase the speed of warming ten-fold, leading to
temperature rises of up to 6 degrees celsius within less than a
century - extremes not seen on Earth for millions of years.
The Amazon rainforest will become desert and savannah. Billions
of people in India and China, who depend on glacier-fed
rivers rising in the Himalayas, will face starvation. Storms will
intensify, bringing flooding and destruction on a massive
scale. And sea levels will soar as the ice caps melt, inundating
cropland and cities around the world.
Faced with these kinds of dire predictions, it might seem odd
that a tiny five per cent cut in carbon emissions - which would
at best shave only a tenth of a degree off the speed of global
warming - is meeting with such powerful opposition. But the
reality of the situation is that the United States, which agreed
a seven per cent cut in Kyoto, is nowhere near meeting that
target. American "greenhouse gas" emissions in fact rose 21 per
cent between 1990 and 1998 because of increased consumption
and the economic boom. Japanese emissions are up eight per cent
over the same period - despite its target of a six
per cent reduction.
In addition, the Kyoto treaty won't even come into force until it
is ratified by at least 55 countries - including industrialised
countries representing at least 55 per cent of their total 1990
carbon emissions. So far only 30 developing countries have
ratified - and the current right-wing political climate means
that the United States may well refuse to sign up at all.
At the same time many developing countries - including China and
India - are pushing for a more equitable solution, which would
recognise that all human beings have an equal right to
the atmosphere. Under this scenario, rich countries which have
caused the problem of global warming will take on most of
the burden, and poor countries will be able to increase
their emissions if this allows them to raise living standards.
In the long term - whatever the outcome of The Hague - this is
the real challenge for tackling climate change. Without equity,
it seems unlikely that a truly global agreement can ever be
forged.
SOURCE: OneWorld
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Hague meeting was preceded by two years of formal and informal
meetings and consultations. These meetings have produced the
texts from which countries' delegates will begin their
politically charged, complex negotiations over the next two
weeks.
They will do so under the watchful eye of the world's media and
environmental groups. On Saturday in Rotterdam, Greenpeace
International activists boarded the coal carrying ship La Paloma
to prevent it from unloading.
"The climate is in danger because governments are not replacing
coal, oil and gas with clean energy sources like the wind and the
sun," said Paul Horsman, Greenpeace climate campaigner.
"Governments meeting in The Hague must stop cheating the people
and commit themselves to taking action to substantially cut
greenhouse gas emissions."
In September, the same group installed a solar electric system on
the roof of the Dutch capital's 16th century parliament buildings
to highlight the benefits of renewable energy and the Hague
talks.
The World Wildlife Fund called on the world's leaders to "get the
rules right."
"World Wildlife Fund is encouraging the U.S. administration and
leaders around the world to strengthen the rules, for our future
and the future of the world's creatures," said the group.
"The U.S. position, as it stands today, will weaken the climate
treaty. The Clinton/Gore Administration has only two weeks left
to show leadership on this urgent issue."
Led by Friends of the Earth, other environmentalists plan to
build a one kilometer (.62 mile) long dike from thousands of
sandbags to encircle the conference venue.
Environmental groups have been further motivated by several
reports released in the runup to the Hague meeting, warning of
calamitous climate change if greenhouse gas emissions are not
curbed.
If that is not enough to motivate negotiators to see their way to
ratifying the Kyoto Protocol and the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change, recent research by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) might be.
The key panel of researchers now suggest that climate models
predicting global temperature increases need to be revised
upward. In a new draft report, the panel revised its earlier
predictions on temperature increases by the year 2100 from an
increase of 1 to 3.6 Celsius to an increase of 1.5 - 6.1 degrees
Celsius.
On today's agenda were a welcoming address by Queen Beatrix of
the Netherlands, and opening addresses by Dutch Environment
Minister and conference president Jan Pronk, IPCC chairman Robert
Watson and UNFCCC executive secretary Michael Zammit Cutajar.
Delegates will adopt an agenda for the coming days and discuss
revised negotiating texts on climate mechanisms and a draft
framework for the transfer of technology.
SOURCE: Environment News Service (ENS)
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