Kyoto greenhouse gas goals face tough test in Hague
November 9, 2000
THE HAGUE, Netherlands (Reuters) -- Three years after the Kyoto
agreement to cut greenhouse gas emissions, negotiators will begin
talks next week on how to give it some teeth.
Some 180 nations will take part in the U.N. climate change
conference, which starts on Monday and runs to November 24. But
government representatives will be hugely outnumbered by
environmentalists, oil lobbyists, automobile makers and other
interest groups out in force to try to shape the debate.
The Kyoto Protocol calling for cuts in greenhouse gas emissions
was agreed in 1997. But only about 30 states have ratified the
protocol in their own governments, and no major industrialized
nation has legally bound itself to the targets.
Many of those countries are awaiting a clearer set of rules
before tying themselves to binding targets, and proponents say
the time is ripe for such a pact.
"Now we must make a decision," Dutch Environmental Minister Jan
Pronk, the conference chairman, told Reuters. "If we fail then
the agreement on the (Kyoto) targets will seem hollow."
Overshadowing the conference is a rash of severe storms and
floods that many scientists and governments believe are the
direct impact of climate change.
Disasters piling up
The worst flooding in 50 years has caused more than 1 billion
euros ($854 million) in damages in Britain this month and
prompted Prime Minister Tony Blair to call for renewed
international action to limit climate change.
But with average global temperatures forecast to rise at least
1.3 to 4.0 degrees Celsius by 2100, extreme weather is likely to
continue to pile up damage around the globe.
"These disasters are at least partly caused by the greenhouse
effect," said Pier Vellinga, director of the Institute for
Environmental Studies, a research group in Amsterdam and
consultant to the European Union.
"In Italy, there was a clear example of a flood caused by climate
change," he added, referring to the disaster on the Po River last
month that killed 25 people and caused more than 1.5 billion
euros in damage.
As laid out in Kyoto, the protocol calling for an average of
5.2-percent emission cut from 1990 levels by 2008-2014, must be
ratified by 55 states representing at least 55 percent of
greenhouse gas emission to have the effect of law.
That agreement was a follow-up to the Rio environmental summit in
1992, which created the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change, the official organizer of the Hague Conference of
Parties.
Subsequent meetings held in Buenos Aires, Bonn and Lyon helped
shape mechanisms for cutting emissions, but proponents say the
Hague meeting is vital to ratifying concrete agreements.
Details
While there is general agreement on the methods -- emissions
trading, transfer of clean technology and reforestation --
working out details has proved a formidable task.
"The most important question is will we be able to decide on
instruments in such a way that the environmental integrity is
maintained," Pronk said.
Much of the debate hangs on the role of the industrialized world,
and how much money it would be willing to spend to help
cash-strapped nations replace outmoded technology.
The United States has been the main supporter of emissions
credits, which it would receive by transferring technology, as
well as emissions trading, in which countries would sell spare
capacity to those not meeting cutback targets.
The United States is emphasizing trading because it is the main
producer of greenhouse gases and unlikely to make changes that
critics have said would cost billions of dollars.
Industry has strong support in the U.S. Senate, where some senior
members have vowed to kill any plan that they see endangering
economic growth.
Pragmatism
Pragmatists in many countries regard such market-based solutions
as the most workable system, but few outside the United States
believe any nation should be allowed to meet all its reduction
targets by buying them from other countries.
The European Union has proposed that states be able to meet half
of their emission cutbacks through such transfers, but that the
rest must come from domestic output cuts.
Several other hurdles remain, including the contention from OPEC
states that they should receive compensation for reductions in
the use of oil, which has been contested by other states.
Small island nations and low-lying coastal countries have been
the biggest supporters of cutting greenhouse gas emissions,
since they face the greatest threat from rising water levels.
"It could be that some of these countries won't exist in 100
years," Pronk said. One issue that appeared to be receding was
concern about the validity of the science behind the causes of
global warming.
A draft report compiled the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, made up of several hundred international scientists, and
leaked last month said that greenhouse gases were making the
world warmer than previously expected, and that the changes were
linked to the human burning of fossil fuels.
Article by Reuters
SOURCE: CNN
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