Earth will get hotter than expected
Special report: the weather
http://www.guardianunlimited.co.uk/weather/
John Vidal
Friday October 27, 2000
Leading climate scientists now agree that human pollution, mainly
from fossil fuels, has added substantially to global warming in
the past 50 years and that the Earth is likely to get far hotter
than previously predicted, with immense consequences for people
and wildlife.
A summary of the 1,000-page final draft of new research by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - a UN-sponsored group
made up of the world's leading atmosphere scientists - has been
sent to governments this week.
It is expected to add urgency to talks on global climate change
in the Hague next month, at which Britain intends to take a lead
in urging states to set targets and timetables to cut emissions.
The report suggests that the upper range of warming over the next
100 years could be far higher than estimated in 1995. Its
worst-case scenario raises the average global temperature by 6C
(11F) above the 1990 level. Average temperatures today are 5C
(9F) higher than they were at the end of the last ice age. Five
years ago the panel predicted that average temperatures would, at
worst, rise by 3C (6.3F)
The leaked document is the first major update of climate
prediction since 1995, when the panel concluded that there was
"a discernible human influence" on the Earth's climate because of
the greenhouse effect - which is caused by the buildup of
heat-trapping chemicals in the atmosphere.
The panel has now concluded that the burning of fossil fuels and
emission of man-made chemicals has "contributed substantially to
the observed warming over the last 50 years". The scientists
believe, too, that temperatures could rise far higher and faster
than previously predicted if emissions are not curtailed.
The human influence on the Earth's climate has long been debated,
but this is the first time such an authoritative group has gone
so far.
While there are still uncertainties, scientists say there is an
"increasing body of observations that provide a collective
picture of a warming world that cannot be solely explained by
natural forces. Emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols due to
human activities continue to alter the atmosphere in ways that
affect the climate system," the report says.
Many panel members in the US say that the summary represents the
closest thing to a consensus possible in science.
They point to the additional data gathered in the past three
years, which shows that the world is much warmer than any similar
string of years in many centuries; improvements in computer
models designed to project future trends; and better
understanding of the influence of other emissions, such as
particles of sulphates which can cool the Earth by reflecting
sunlight back into space.
Speaking in a personal capacity yesterday, one of the British
authors of the report, Mike Hume of the University of East
Anglia, described the research as "incremental back-up" to what
had been suspected for years.
"Our current best insights lead us to see a continuation of
global warming and an acceleration of it," he said.
Evidence of increased warming has been found in retreating
glaciers, thinning polar sea ice, retreating snow packs,
increased precipitation, and the big rise in weather-related
natural disasters .
Global warming will deeply affect poor countries, leading to huge
numbers of refugees, crop failures, and extreme weather. Most
emissions of carbon, the main greenhouse-warming gas, are from
rich countries. The US is responsible for 23% of carbon
emissions; Britain's 3% is the same as that of Africa.
Kevin Trenberth, head of climate analysis at the US National
Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colorado, said
the report showed that global warming was a real problem.
"More and more people working in atmospheric science or on
climate or ecology have had to come to grips with the fact that
climate change is affecting what they're looking at," he said.
"It reinforces what we were able to say in 1995," said Tom
Wigley, another NCAR climatologist. "It shows the previous
projections in 1990 and 1995 were conservative."
Some governments may insist on changing the text before it is
published in May.
SOURCE: Guardian Unlimited
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