Scientist says Kyoto treaty not enough to stop global warming
September 13, 2000
CANBERRA, Australia (Reuters) -- Even full adherence to the Kyoto
agreement to cut greenhouse gas emissions would have little
impact on global warming, a leading Australian scientist said on
Wednesday.
Graeme Pearman, chief of the Commonwealth Scientific and
Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), Australia's leading
scientific body, said even stopping the growth of greenhouse
gas emissions will not be enough to prevent climate change.
"It is highly unlikely that we will see such stabilization (of
atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations) except perhaps in the
latter part of this century, and that will be levels at least
double and perhaps triple pre-industrial levels," Pearman said in
a speech to the National Press Club in Australia's capital
Canberra.
"Even full adherence to the Kyoto Protocol will make little
impact on this ... therefore we must expect that there will be
some climate change as a result of these increases."
Many scientists say an increase in greenhouse gases is trapping a
greater amount of the sun's heat in the atmosphere, causing a
warming of the surface of the earth and leading to changes in
climate.
Such changes are predicted to include rising sea levels, higher
rainfall in some areas and drier weather in other parts of the
world.
The Kyoto Protocol pledged by industrialized nations in 1997
commits them to cut their emissions of greenhouse gases to an
average 5.2 percent below the 1990 level by 2008-2012.
But the protocol does not include developing countries, and
allows some industrial nations who are big users of coal and
petroleum, like Australia, to continue to increase emissions.
Greenhouse gases include carbon dioxide, which is released from
burning fossil fuels, and methane.
Population growth
Pearman said the current efforts to cut the heat-trapping
emissions from burning fossil fuels will be overwhelmed by
unstoppable population growth and industrial development.
He was still optimistic that a better solution than Kyoto-like
agreements would be reached, either by governments or the
scientific community, in the years ahead.
"It's not an easy issue, but it is something that will be
developing -- Kyoto is not the answer, that's all I'm saying,
that we need to develop over the next few decades," he said.
The Kyoto Protocol has been widely criticized for its lack of
enforcement and a perception that many nations who signed have no
intention of meeting their targets.
After three years of negotiations, the Kyoto signatories have
still not agreed if there should be sanctions for countries which
fail to meet their reductions targets, as proposed by the
15-nation European Union, and who will impose them.
The next global meeting on climate change, the sixth Conference
of Parties to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change is
being held in The Hague in November.
It is expected to enforce the Kyoto Protocol by hammering out
concrete measures for reducing emissions of greenhouse gases.
SOURCE: CNN
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