SIDS V&A ASSESSMENT
PACNEWS AUG 1, 2000
APIA (Pacnews): New Zealand's Professor Richard Warrick of the
International Global Change Institute at the University of
Waikato said, it is now widely appreciated that the changes and
variations in climate change cannot be looked at in isolation
from those of the human systems.
The human dimensions of change, he said, including drivers such
as population growth and distribution, social and cultural
alterations, play a critical role in determining the degree of
exposure of various sectors in Small Island Developing States
(SIDS) to climate change, variability and extremes.
Warrick said therefore that in conducting assessments of future
effects, scenarios of future demographic change and socio
economic development need to be consistently woven alongside
scenarios of climate and sea level change.
"In the case of coastal zone, for example, projections of future
patterns of coastal population, infrastructure and tourism are
crucial elements in assessing future climate change effects. It
is the interplay of both natural and human systems that result in
biophysical and socio-economic impacts."
Warrick said such impacts are most often assessed by "sector" -
agricultural, coastal, water resource or forestry for example.
"The sensitivity of the sector to changes in climate and sea
level depends on its resilience. For example, coral reefs
suffering from physical damage and pollution have a lowered
resilience to sea level and temperature changes, thereby
increasing the sensitivity of adjacent shorelines to erosion and
flooding over time."
Warrick was speaking on strategies for Vulnerability and
Adaptation (V&A) Assessment in the context of national
communications, at a climate change workshop for the Alliance of
Small Island States (AOSIS) in Apia, Samoa today.
The 43 AOSIS member countries, non-government organisations and
donor communities are participating in the two-week workshop,
which ends on Friday.
On Strategies for V&A assessment, Warrick said, a number of SIDS
in the Pacific and Caribbean have recently adopted a two-prong
approach, which includes V&A studies and national V&A statements.
However he added that many SIDS have encountered major obstacles,
mainly related to the lack of specific data, models and existing
studies.
"As well there has often been a lack of capacity in some sectoral
areas for carrying out specific tasks. Such gaps have hindered
the progression from one step to the next."
Warrick said, therefore while substantial progress has often been
made in describing baseline conditions and climate change
scenarios, many V&A studies have stalled at the step of fully
analysing future impacts and in identifying and evaluating
adaptation options.
This, he added has been a common experience amongst SIDS.
Warrick pointed out that a full V&A study will necessarily be a
long term, evolving process for many SIDS, as the information
gaps are gradually filled and the capacity built.
He said many V&A assessments are conducted from a national
perspective and there is a need for integrated assessment at
community level which is a major source of vulnerability.
He also suggested exploring internet-based remote training
courses as well as enhanced awareness- raising activities in
order to reach people.
Warrick added that there is a need to pay greater attention to
identifying development policies, plans and projects as potential
mechanisms to encourage adaptation.
Ends
SOURCE: Pacnews
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