PROF HAY/AOSIS - SEA LEVEL RISE
PACNEWS 31, 2000
APIA(Pacnews): A lead author on concerns for Small Island
Developing States (SIDS), Professor John Hay of the International
Global Change Institute at New Zealand's Waikato University says,
sea levels in the South Pacific have been rising by as much as
1-2 millimetres per year (1-2mm/yr).
Professor Hay made the comment based on data from 11 (eleven)
tide gauges and he says this is more than 10 times the global
rate of sea level rise this century.
This finding he says, is validated by satellite data, which shows
the increase of 2-3 millimetres per year (2-3mm/yr), particularly
in the region from Papua New Guinea southeast to Fiji.
"The cause of this variation is not clear, but appears likely to
be related to El Nino events, Professor Hay said.
He adds the current rate of sea level increase in the Caribbean
and Gulf of Mexico is about 1-millimetre per year (1mm/yr).
Professor Hay made the comments at a workshop on Climate Change
and Small Island States in Apia, Samoa today.
Delegates from the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) are
participating in the two-week workshop on negotiations,
management and strategy.
Professor Hay said the most recent estimates of the mean global
rise in relative sea level from 1990 to 2100 centre of five
millimetres per year (5mm/yr), with a range of 2 to 9 mm/yr.
This he says is two to four times greater than the rate
experienced in the previous 100 years.
"Changes in the highest sea levels at a given location will
result from the change in mean sea-level plus changes in storm
surge heights, commonly associated with strong winds and low
atmospheric pressures."
"Model-based studies suggest that, due to sea-level rise, by 2080
the number of people flooded by storm surges in any typical year
will be more than five times higher than present."
Professor Hay warns the Caribbean and the Indian and Pacific
Oceans
Islands face the largest relative increase in flood risk, with
the number of people at risk being some 200 times higher than in
most parts of the world.
On Greenhouse Gas emissions, Professor Hay said the total Pacific
Island population of 7.1-million in 22 countries produce some
6.816 million tonnes of carbon dioxide per year.
"In contrast, based on International Energy Agency data for 1996,
global carbon dioxide emissions arising from fossil fuel
combustion only are 22620.46 million tonnes per year."
"Thus on average, individual Pacific islanders are responsible
for producing approximately one quarter of the carbon dioxide
emissions attributable to the average person worldwide."
In other words, he says, the Pacific islands region as a whole
accounts for some 0.03% of the global emissions of carbon dioxide
from fuel combustion despite having around 0.12% of the world's
population.
According to Professor Hay, of the seven Pacific Island Countries
(PICs) reporting methane emissions from solid waste disposal
systems, the lowest reported was for the Cook Islands while the
highest was for Fiji.
Only four countries reported annual carbon release and uptake
related to land use charge and forestry activities.
Three of the four countries indicated the carbon dioxide removals
exceeded emissions due to land use change and forestry.
Professor Hay said in the past few years small island states have
put considerable effort into the preparation of national climate
change action plans.
"There is now a need to focus on the continued refinement and
implementation of these plans and also on identifying the ways
and means to ensuring that these plans are harmonised and
mainstreamed with national developments."
SOURCE: Pacnews
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