East Coast Climate Report No Happy Scenario
By Kurt Sternlof
Warm winters and suffocating summers, droughts and water
rationing punctuated by biblical downpours and flash flooding,
electrical shortages and mosquito spraying, eventually maybe even
a boat lane on the FDR Drive -- is this what the future holds in
store for metropolitan New York, New Jersey and Connecticut?
It appears so, according to a federally mandated study to be
released for 30 days of public comment today during a special
conference at Columbia University.
The report, Climate Change and a Global City: An Assessment of
the Metropolitan East Coast Region, is related to the national
climate-change assessment report that was released last Monday.
But the MEC study, as it is known, focuses specifically on the
effects of climate change on greater New York City and, by proxy,
other coastal urban areas.
And while the national assessment cites many potentially positive
aspects of global warming-driven climate change, such as bumper
crops in the Midwest, these don't much apply to the New York
region's burgeoning population of more than 20 million.
"Climate change is going to affect people where they live, and
that means mega-cities like New York," said MEC co-leader Cynthia
Rosenzweig of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies and
Columbia University's Center for Climate Systems Research.
"Frankly, the outlook is alarming and will only get worse the
longer we delay in addressing global warming and related climate
change issues with enlightened urban and regional planning," said
William Solecki, professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences at
Montclair State University and MEC co-leader.
For example, rising sea levels spurred by global warming mean
that the greater New York metropolitan area can expect to be
battered as much as 10 times more frequently by damaging coastal
storm surges and flooding over the coming century.
At the same time -- with average temperatures projected to rise
nationwide by as much as 10 degrees Fahrenheit by 2100, an effect
exaggerated by dense urban development -- summer heat will
increasingly pose an enormous risk to human health, not to
mention the electric power grid.
Also, hot and steamy conditions could lead to increases in
mosquito and other vector-borne diseases like the West Nile
Virus, as well as respiratory illnesses linked to worsening air
quality.
"The effects of climate change are already upon us. Most of these
scenarios don't even sound like predictions anymore," Rosenzweig
said. "They're happening right now. The only real question is
whether we will choose to adapt proactively, or simply wait until
dire circumstances compel us."
The full report will also be made available as a PDF file
download from the MEC website following the conference.
The Metropolitan East Coast (MEC) project contributes to the U.S.
National Assessment: The Potential Consequences of Climate
Variability and Change, sponsored by the U.S. Global Change
Research Program. The MEC component has been funded by the
National Science Foundation, with additional support from U.S.
EPA Region II and the Columbia Earth Institute.
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