SUMMARY DAY THREE
Wednesday, 5 April 2000
Science Session 1
Co-Chairs - Dr Wolfgang Scherer (NTF) and John Mooteb (FSM)
Rapporteurs - Peter Petrusevics, NTF, AUSTRALIA; Henry Taiki, SPREP,
SAMOA
The session consisted of the following presentations
Keynote Presentation by Dr Bill Erb, GOOS, titled
"Inter-government perspective on global observing systems"
Dr Erb described the recent formation of the Global Ocean Observing
System (GOOS) office in Perth, Western Australia. The formation of the
Perth GOOS office was an initiative of IOC-UNESCO/Australian governments
and was part of the Integrated Global Observing System (IGOS) which has
broad ranging interests in land/atmosphere/ocean biosphere.
The terms of reference for Perth office was to address climate change
aspects associated with the Indian/Pacific oceans with an emphasis on
the Pacific Ocean. The organisation objectives were:
* The development and maintenance of long term global ocean observing
systems.
* The integration of high quality data to provide broad synoptic
overview of Pacific Ocean processes.
Existing areas of activity of GOOS included gathering of data from
moored buoys, ships-of-opportunity and satellite observations as part of
GOOS's charter built around a number of axioms which included=20
* Servicing human needs in hurricane , sea state and coastal erosion
information
* Knowledge of ocean processes based on high quality observations using
satellite remote sensing and in-situ measurements=20
GOOS programs were structured to be implemented at a number of levels
including
=20
* Inter-governmental=20
* Country
* Institutional
* Regional
=20
The regional level was the main form of implementation. In the case of
Pacific GOOS program, the program was carried out in conjunction with
South Pacific Applied Geoscience Commission (SOPAC), the South Pacific
Regional Environment Program (SPREP) and University of South Pacific
(USP).=20
New initiatives of the GOOS programme being considered included:
* Global monitoring of ocean surface topography using Topex/Poseidon
* Ocean circulation employing 3 dimensional baroclinic models
* High resolution sea surface wind fields=20
* Ocean biology including chlorophyll-a productivity and CO2 flux
measurements using the Sea-viewing Wide Field- of- view sensor (SeaWiF)
technology
* The ARGO drifting buoy programme
The ARGO drifting programme would consist of release of approximately
3000 free drifting buoys within the Pacific Ocean region. General
programme features included:
* Released at approximately 186 nautical mile separation
* Capability to conduct conductivity-temperature-depth profiles between
0-2000 metres
* Operational lifetime of between 4-5 years
* Rise-to-surface and report capability every 10 days
Dr Erb made an invitation to organisations interested in participating
in collaborative research programmes with GOOS.
Discussions
John Luick (NTF) - query about the accuracy of Argos system during life
span.
This was assured by Bill, however, no specific details.
Guam - Coral reefs are important and their health depend on amount of
light, etc and emphasis the need to measure calcium carbonate.
Bill Erb - responded and drew attention to the Global Coral Reef
Initiative - and agreed that coral reefs as indication of climate
change.=20
Summary
* Develop GOOS in the pacific region - with partnership and support from
pacific island countries governments
* Develop an inventory of programmes and activities in the pacific
region - as a base line
* Sharing of data and information
Topic: Sea-level changes in the pacific island environment: Next 100
years
Presenter: Randy Thaman (USP)
Summary
* General support for mean sea level observations proposed by National
Tidal Facility.
* Existing evidence of coastal erosion, movement of unconsolidated
material, infiltration to drinking water supply.
* Increased stress on coastline to be expected under increasing sea
level
Discussions
Samoa - What activities or research USP undertaking on response measure
such as adaptation.
Randy Thaman - responded and this could be looked at in two ways - other
regional organizations are doing these activities and set up system at
village level to access scientific information to assist them in doing
things a village levels such as planting mangroves and building houses
away from coasts.
SOPAC - commented that infrastructure built without consideration of
geological and hydrological information.
Topic: Assessing regional coastal response to sea level rise: Relevance
for coastal policy and vulnerability
Presenter: Nick Harvey (University of Adelaide, Australia)
Summary
* .Tide gauges located next to cities are subjected to various sources
of adjustment.
* Effect may be variable along the coastline
* Australian sea level reached maximum height about 6000 years ago.
Throughout the Pacific region maximum levels reached at different times.
* Case example given of adjustment of levels at Port Adelaide due to
subsidence caused by ground water extraction and compared with
adjustment processes at Port Pirie and Port Augusta, Spencer Gulf.
* Implications to planning procedures for coastal zone management
discussed.=20
* Related to policy - South Australia on coastal planning and new
development
* New development to be protected from 1 meter sea level rise by 2100
Topic: Sea level history and coastal evolution in Samoa: Implication on
coastal
Ian Goodwin - University of Newcastle
Summary
* Tide gauge in Apia (Uppolu) not representative of all islands of
Samoa
* Savaii island relative mean sea level is very complicated
* One tide gauge not sufficient, not representative of all islands
* Coastal hazard mapping required before determining response options
Discussions
Samoa: Query on coastal zone management? How do the speaker see this
happening from his research?
* The response was that to categorize coast of Samoa in 3 to 4 zones,
and building partnership with communities.
Development of Responses Options - Adaptation and Mitigation Measures
Rapporteur: Henry Taiki
1. What is our current understanding/capability?
* Climate change impacts are more than just on coastlines
* We are continually adapting to changes in the environment
* People are the problem
* Impacts and responses on health, water sectors are obvious
* People cannot adapt to climate change unless aware of it
* Traditional methods of adaptation exist
* Protection and replanting of trees and forest on coastal areas is
something that can be done at community level
* Information of coastal plants in the region are available
* The common problem and used the example of Tonga of problem being one
of replanting mentality - lack of knowledge of trees and forests in
young generation.
* Information dissemination is a critical issue in enabling communities
* Reforestation can be adaptation measures - use of trees (about 100
years old) as adaptation in Tuvalu=20
* Storm surges creating a lot of problems (in the case of Kiribati)
* Under CDM - a developed/developing countries partnership
* Under the Kyoto Protocol, Australia's target requires that it limit
greenhouse gas emissions growth to 108 % of its 1990 baseline.=20
Australia National Greenhouse Strategy - a framework for advancing
Australia's greenhouse response and focussing on three fronts: limiting
greenhouse gas emissions and enhancing sinks, fostering knowledge and
understanding of greenhouse issues, and laying foundation for
adaptation. Australia Greenhouse office established - to coordinate
Australia's domestic greenhouse efforts and programs include renewable
energy, energy efficiency, transport, partnership for actions,
greenhouse gas abatement programs, sinks, and accounting for carbon.
* Difficult to estimate sea level changes or trends in Niue
2. What do we still need to know and/or able to do?
* Communities need to be aware of climate change in order to respond
* Communities need some expectations in order to prepare and respond
* Better understanding of the causes of and effects will need to be
based on identifying ways/paths through which human activities
contribute to increased atmospheric concentration of green house gases,
and the pathways through which climate change effects, which in the
first instance are biological in character, affect people.
* Include traditional knowledge of trees in education system
* Inventory of traditional methods of adaptation
* Information dissemination is a critical issue in enabling communities,
through disaster management offices, churches, etc
* Reforestation can be more than adaptation measures - carbon dioxide
crediting.
* Policy mechanism established to allow sustainable use of trees (as in
the Tonga project) but not carbon dioxide crediting. Communities to
know how to use the trees. It was also emphasized that there is a need
to get traditional knowledge into the education system and make it
reflects needs of pacific island countries. Protecting trees is
protecting social and economic foundation of the villages or
communities.
* Adaptation measures for storm surges
* Sharing information on adaptation measures - both long and short terms
* Traditional knowledge - nature conservation (leave things as they are
and where they are), nature conservation be part of the framework
* Understanding of Clean Development Mechanism (CDM).
developed/developing countries partnership
* Increase observing system - sea level gauges on Niue
3. How should we acquire this additional understanding/abilities?
* Exchange of information
* Inventory of traditional methods of adaptation for each country and
document them
Science Session
Day 3 Wednesday, April 05, 2000
1030-1200
Topic: Adaptation to climate change in pacific islands
Presenter: John Campbell (International Global Change Institute)
Adaptation Issues
* Climate change impacts are more than just on coastlines
* Need to adapt no matter what happen - i.e. greenhouse gas emissions
zero, there will still be warming
* John Campbell raised the question - Adapting to what? And when?
* We are continually adapting to environment change and at increasingly
shorter time frame
* Climate change : Causes and Effects - people are the problem
* Chain of impacts and associated responses illustrated with health and
water sectors in Tuvalu and Kiribati and, these impacts/responses
(adaptations) will be needed irrespective of climate change
* Communities need to be aware of climate change in order to respond
* Communities need some expectations in order to prepare and respond
* Better understanding of the causes of and effects will need to be
based on identifying ways/paths through which human activities
contribute to increased atmospheric concentration of green house gases,
and the pathways through which climate change effects, which in the
first instance are biological in character, affect people.
* Reactive adaptations - people cannot adapt to the effects of climate
change unless they are aware of them - having an awareness of some
changes, which require a response.
* Responses to climate change are either from direct experience of
expectations.
* The responses to direct experience is reactive and forced and the
responses to expectations are anticipated and planned.
* The third path of categorizing adaptation is by identifying the point
at which adaptation or adaptive action intervenes in the effect
process. As we move away from the direct effects we move more and more
into the realms of social and economic effects. Adaptive action can be
taken to modify effects at any of these stages. Where the point of
intervention is closer to direct effects it is more likely that the
adaptive action will seek to modify the environment e.g. building sea
walls, etc. As the point of intervention move more towards the indirect
effects the adaptive action is more likely to be of the type that
modifies peoples activities.
* Choosing the appropriate point of intervention is likely to depend on
a range of factor (range of adaptive, cost consideration, etc).
* Three possible categories of adaptations (reactive Vs forced,
autonomous Vs planned and point of intervention).
* A fourth category - win-win adaptations - adaptations according to
their utility if anticipated climate changes effects do or do not
eventuate.
* Who carries out adaptations? - everybody - not only the government.
* Policy responses for adaptations - information for adaptation,
assessing the needs for adaptation, evaluating adaptation capacities,
monitoring climate change effects and adaptation responses
Topic: Adaptation to climate re-adaptation: Conservation and restoration
of coastal forests
Presenter: Randy Thaman (USP)
Adaptation Issues
* Protection and replanting of trees and forest on coastal areas is
something that can be done at community level
* Provided index of 140 coastal plants , 86 species should be protected
and made available to communities for re-planting on coastal areas, e.g.
$10 000 project in Tonga, to plant 20 000 plants
* Agriculization of forests: Enrichment - aboriginal addition,
Enrichment - colonial addition, and Process of deforestation ever since
early settlement
* The common problem and used the example of Tonga of problem being one
of replanting mentality - lack of knowledge will to replant trees and
forests in young generation.
* Of 140 species of plants, 119 used for medicine
* By protecting trees and using them for replanting, we are conserving
important "no costs" important traditional uses.
Topic: Traditional adaptation systems
Presenter: Seluka Seluka (Tuvalu)
Traditional adaptation systems from atoll islands perspective
* Provided background of Tuvalu
* Why problem? - increased global temperature, increased severe weather,
etc
* Traditional systems - anticipated system and responsive system (also
mentioned in John Campbell presentation - Adaptation to climate change
in pacific islands)
* Identify vulnerable sectors: water, health, coast stabilization,
agriculture, fisheries, etc
* IPCC view
* Future prospects
Topic: Australia's policy response to climate change
Presenter: Claire Fazakerley (Australia)
Mitigation Issues
* Under the Kyoto Protocol, Australia's target requires that it limit
greenhouse gas emissions growth to 108 % of its 1990 baseline=20
* National Greenhouse Strategy (endorsed by the Federal, State and
Territory governments in 1998) - a framework for advancing Australia's
greenhouse response and focussing on three fronts: limiting greenhouse
gas emissions and enhancing sinks, fostering knowledge and understanding
of greenhouse issues, and laying foundation for adaptation
* $180 million committed by the Prime Minister's 1997 package -
Safeguarding the Future: Australia's Response to Climate Change
* $796 million allocated for greenhouse programs under the Measure for a
Better Environment initiative
* The Federal government is investing almost $1 billion over five years
to reduce domestic emissions
* Australia Greenhouse office established - to coordinate Australia's
domestic greenhouse efforts and programs include renewable energy,
energy efficiency, transportpartnership for actions, greenhouse gas
abatement programmes, sinks, and accounting for carbon.
Topic: Guam's responses to climate change impacts
Presenter: Mike Gawel (Guam)
Adaptation Issues
* Background of Guam
* Emphasized importance and frequency of typhoons
* Storm surges are concerns to them than tsunamis - surges up to 6
meters causing lots of flooding in coastal areas where people live
* Expansion of development and 1.2 million tourists per year
* 80 % water comes from groundwater
* Adaptation measures - construction/protection options along coast -
storm surges, and building constriction - winds
* Other activities include, laws/regulations/codes and these are
enforced by development plans, research and monitoring
Topic: Recent Climate Change and Sea Level Activities in Niue
Presenter: Sionetasi Pulehetoa (Niue)
Climate Activities
* Background of Niue
* Niue launched its national Climate Change Project in early 1998 - a 2
year project funded by GEF
* Introducing climate change science in primary and secondary schools,
and at post-secondary level for non-atmospheric and non-marine science
students and through non-formal public education - a critical need
* Increase the availability of climate and climate change knowledge
resources and, encourage and promote its dissemination among all people
in order for decision makers, teachers and others to better understand
and appreciate the relevance and value of the present situation of the
climate
* Regional sea level change in Niue area: data from neighboring
countries Cook Islands, Tonga and Samoa not representative of Niue
* The Director of Niue Meteorological Service has been asked on sea
level changes but could not give the answer.
* Conclusion: If one is to estimate sea level changes or trends in Niue
area it is difficult. The more Seaframe stations we have in the region
the better the understanding of sea level changes or trends. The
Manager of Niue Meteorological Service raised the issue of Niue to have
a Seaframe during a meeting in Tahiti in 1999 but his attempt went in
vain. The Manger raised the question of why Niue does not have Seaframe
stations?
Discussions
* A question raised on what are the traditional methods in Tuvalu? =20
* Comment - information dissemination is a critical issue in enabling
communities
* Comment - community knowledge and services needs to worked through the
disaster management offices
* Comment - importance of church and churches network in dissemination
of information
* A question was raised - reforestation is an adaptation option Yes or
No?
* Re-forestation (in Tonga) as adaptation measures but not carbon
dioxide credit measures. It is a long term adaptation measure and other
uses.
* A question raised - if a policy mechanism established to allow
sustainable use of trees (as in the Tonga project) but not carbon
dioxide crediting. Communities to know how to use the trees. It was
also emphasized that there is a need to get traditional knowledge into
the education system and make it reflects needs of pacific island
countries. Protecting trees is protecting social and economic
foundation of the villages or communities.
* Comments - on mitigation is that whether technology works irrespective
of whether it is old or new.
* Storm surges creating a lot of problems and wishes to learn from other
pacific island countries through sharing of information. Mangroves could
not grow in some places and research in this area is required
* Comment - on the use of trees (about 100 years old) as adaptation=20
* Comments - traditional knowledge - nature conservation (leave things
as they are and where they are), nature conservation be part of the
framework
* Comment - Australia's manufactured fridges not appropriate for tropics
(walls too thin) and, went on to ask Australia's position on this issue.=20
* A question was raised - on the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM).=20
Under CDM a developed/developing countries partnership
* A question was raised - on Australia's position on Ozone Destroying
Substances (ODSs) and, no response
* A question was raised - on the factors used by Australia in
developing "Business as Usual" scenarios from which they are predicting
greenhouse gas reductions
* Comment - About $400 million to spend on mitigation and at the same
time Australia still continues to subsidize coal and open up new fossil
fuel projects. Australia responded - emission reduction is Australia's
overall reduction, not fuel use or fossil fuel.
* A question was raised - on why Australia does not consider nuclear
energy. Australia responded - political issue related to disposal
Rapporteurs Report
Group Discussion on Response Options
Wednesday, April 5, 2000; 2-4 p.m.
(DRAFT)
QUESTION 1: What is our current understanding of the key issues?
* We seem to have a fairly good understanding of causes and appropriate
mitigation responses (e.g., reducing GHG emissions) BUT implementation
mechanisms are uncertain.
* Through the National Communications process, Pacific Island Countries
are very well-positioned to access adaptation funding through the
convention. It was noted that the Convention contains provisions to
support adaptation independent of Protocol implementation.
* Throughout the National Communications process, individual nations
have significantly advanced their understanding of the key issues
associated with mitigation and adaptation.
* It was noted that for Pacific Island Countries anthropogenic emissions
are already at "dangerous levels" for the purposes of the UNFCCC.
* One of the group participants (Professor R. Thaman) provided a
detailed summary of our current understanding which is provided as an
appendix to this report.
QUESTION 2: What are our current capabilities to address these issues?
* The individual Country Teams provide a core capability in each nation
and should be sustained as a high priority.
* It was noted that there is a need to maintain certain existing
capabilities like negotiating skills, domestic administrations and
resource management.
* Capacity building should relate not just to the ability to implement
the Convention but also to enhancing the ability of local communities
respond to climate change.
* Environmental NGO's, churches and other community groups provide
additional capability to educate and raise awareness about climate
impacts and responses. =20
QUESTION 3: What information and understanding do we need to acquire?
* There is a clear need to translate scientific results into useful and
usable information for the purposes of policy formulation and local
action.
* It was noted by a number of countries that additional information on
extreme events and variability was critical to developing appropriate
policies and response strategies.
* More information on local impacts is required.
* There is a need for national and local decision makers to have better
access to the results of scientific research.
* There is a need to survey and catalog traditional knowledge and local
responses to extreme events.
QUESTION 4: What actions should be taken to enhance our knowledge and
understanding and by whom?
* There is a clear need for Pacific Island countries to elaborate what
they mean by adaptation and put forward specific proposals. It was
repeatedly stressed that the National Communications provide an
excellent basis for such an effort and that those should be taken into
account to avoid duplication of effort.
* There is a clear need to inform the public in the region about issues
of climate change through formal education, media, church groups, etc. =20
It was noted, however, that simply raising awareness was not sufficient
and that, at the same time, implementation of specific projects empower
communities to effectively act on that awareness.
* There is a need to increase the involvement of Pacific Island
Countries in monitoring and research programs; donor agencies and
scientific institutions should be encouraged to make more of an effort
in this regard.
* There is a need to transfer the technology for monitoring and research
and to train local capacity in this regard.
* There is a need for appropriate local science and technology to
complement existing programs.
QUESTION 5: What capabilities do we still need to develop?
* There is a clear need to develop and deliver useful and usable
information based on scientific research at the local, national and
regional levels [Rapporteurs' suggestion is sponsoring the training of
scientific communicators].
* It was noted that partnerships with the private sector can be
beneficial; tourism and insurance industries were specifically
mentioned.
* It was stressed that there is an array of scientific capabilities that
need to be developed and retained at the national level and that
long-term professional opportunities are essential for retaining
expertise. It was noted that there is a need for sustained training
programs and support for graduates to provide continuous expertise at
the national level (scientific/technical "bench strength"). The role of
USP was specifically mentioned.
* It was noted that there is still a need for a pool of expertise at the
regional level.=20
QUESTION 6: What actions should be taken to enhance our capabilities and
by whom?
* There is a need to develop and implement effective mechanisms to
increase public awareness and enhance local and national capabilities to
disseminate inforemation (e.g., teacher training and workshops for
community leaders).
* There is a need (and benefit) to build more effective bridges among
island regions (e.g, Caribbean). The role of regional universities and
scientific organizations was mentioned in this regard.
* There is a need to identify and attract a broad base of financial
support to maintain national and local research and expertise.
* There is a need to increase the capability to deliver messages and
promote positive responses at the local level. There is a need to
develop an appropriate system(s) for the generation and distribution of
information from the regional to the local level.
* There is a need to enhance the capability of countries to monitor
their own climate conditions.
* There is a need to enhance the capability of countries to monitor
coral reefs, marine organisms and the marine environment.
* There is a need to enhance the capability to communicate scientific
information to national and local decision makers.
QUESTION 7: What actions should be taken to address these
issues/problems?
* Pacific Island Countries should continue to pursue renewable energy
options for reasons of sustainable development as well as sending a
clear message to the broader international community about the
achievability of mitigation.
* It was stressed that Pacific Island Countries need to take steps to
integrate the work of country teams into national development
strategies.
* Enhance capabilities for formal education and research by increasing
funding and strengthening collaboration with major universities in the
region (USP, UOG, UPNG and others). This requires assistance from donor
countries.
* The region should develop and submit capacity building projects to the
GEF.
* Steps should be taken to integrate the needs identified in National
Communications into national development plans and to use National
Communications as a basis for policy formulation and project
development.
Highlights of Current Understanding
Additional Comments Provided by R. Thaman
* There is agreement that there is global warming and associated sea
level rise and that it will accelerate over this current century.
* That, although relative increases in sea level are partly due to
processes such as glacial rebound, crustal movements, human factors and
melting of glaciers and ice packs, thermal expansion appears to be the
main contributing factor.
* That sea level rise has already been shown to have negative impacts on
small island states and coastal areas in the form of beach and coastal
erosion, loss of land, saltwater intrusion and inundation and
deterioration in the health of coral reefs and possibly other marine and
coastal biological communities, and has led to loss of life, property,
agriculture, fisheries production and national and local incomes.
* Small island states and low-lying coastal areas are the most
vulnerable to such negative impacts.
* These negative impacts are magnified by extreme events such as
tropical cyclones, ENSO, IPO events, tsunamis, king tides, etc.
* Many of these extreme events will be intensified or made more frequent
by climate change and associated sea level rise.
* Although there is a need to refine our data on the above, there is a
need for immediate action at the international, regional, national and
local levels to prepare for and mitigate the negative impacts of climate
change and sea level rise and associated extreme events.
* There is a need for capacity building and increased awareness of the
nature of climate change, sea level rise and its negative impacts and
associated extreme events at the regional, national and local levels,
including improved dissemination of up-to-date information in a form
relevant to the people and policy makers of the region.
* Pacific nations and territories must work hand-in-hand with regional
and international aid agencies, research organizations and NGOs in a
combined and well-coordinated effort to take action to address causes of
climate change and to prepare for the impacts of climate change in an
effort to enhance our capacities in formal education and research.=20
Bilateral and multi-lateral funding agencies and international research
organizations should consider increasing funding and strengthening
collaboration with major universities in the region.
* Programs of coastal forest protection and re-establishment and the
protection and planting of trees in small island states should be made a
priority for action.
Breakout Session Two
Improving Our Understanding of the Impacts
Wednesday, April 5, 2000
10:30-12:00
Peter Whetton (CSIRO): Regional Scenarios on Climate Change
Dr. Whetton's talk is based on a CSIRO report produced for SPREP. The
basis of climate change scenarios in his paper are those of IPCC in
1996. Scenarios were developed with several uncertainties: CO2
emissions and uncertainties about how the climate will respond. Looked
at five different climate models: CISRO, DARLAM, Hadley Center, DKRZ and
CCMA. =20
The CSIRO model show an El-Nino-like warming pattern in the Pacific
Islands region-a more El Ni=F1o-like state. Expect change to include an
increase El-Nino conditions. Warming observed in the models continues
into the future. Implies an increase in frequency in El Ni=F1o
conditions, but this is also affected by changes in variability which
models do not simulate very well.
Models show that warming in our region mostly less than global
projections. For 2050 the model show an increase of between.4( to 1.3(
C increase in temperature and sea level rise of 6 - 40 cm. For 2100,
the model shows a temperature increases of between .6( and 3.5( C. =20
Most models show significant rainfall increases. For rainfall during
the period November - April, one model show changes in rainfall of from
-10% to +10% in one sub-region to between +5% to +30% for 2050 with the
North-East sub-region. During the period November to April the range is
from -5% to +10% and from 0% to 75% in two sub-regions.=20
As already indicated, the models general show a change toward a more El
Ni=F1o-like state. They also show that El Nino/La Nina occurrence would
also be affected by climate change. The nature of seasonal to
interannual climate variability is not clearly shown by current models.
In terms of seasonal to interannual variability, there is no strong
indication of change in rainfall patterns, but ENSO-related variability
is not well simulated. Daily extremes likely to increase in most
regions (especially the central eastern Pacific), except where mean
rainfall decreases of more then a few percent occur.
In terms of tropical cyclones, the model indicates an increase of
intensity with a=20
0-20% increase in wind speed with a doubling of CO2. The model also
indicates no change in regions of formation for tropical cyclones but
there is very little confidence in this finding.
Future opportunities include improvements in modeling results, extend
scenarios to include implications for frequency and severity of extreme
sea-level events. Based on the results thus far, a risk assessment
approach is recommended.
Eileen Shea (East-West Center: Consequences of Climate Variability and
Change for the Pacific Islands: Challenges and Opportunities
Discussed the Pacific Regional Assessment of the Consequences of Climate
Variability and Change. Rationale for this assessment in the US
affiliated Pacific Islands in the context of the US National
Assessment: current impacts of climate variability strong in the
Pacific; research in the Pacific region critical for science; Pacific
has shown regional leadership in climate variability and applications.
This presentation is a transition for this Conference: Moving to
several important questions: How do we translate climate science for
policy? =20
How do we establish and sustain an effective, 2-way dialogue with
decision-makers? =20
Pacific Regional Assessment started with a workshop in 1998. Results of
that workshop included the conclusion that climate variability and
change must be addressed w/in the context of other stresses. Must
understand long-term trends in terms of variability. Have to deal with
today's policies today while you are preparing for future changes.
The Pacific regional assessment appreciated special circumstances of
island communities: Problems with infrastructure and existing stresses
on island ecosystems. The assessment done thus far highlights the
critical need to close information gap between scientists and
decision-makers. The overall assessment will focus on water resources,
public health and safety, and challenges for coastal communities and
ecosystems.
In parallel, the assessment will focus on facilitating dialogue between
scientists, decision-makers, and communities and nurturing partnership
between scientists & decision makers and between people & their
environment.
One year ago, a number of organizations attending a SPREP meeting met to
talk about the fact that it is incumbent on scientific community to
provide relevant information to decision-makers through increased
collaboration. Began to see the value of teaming up to develop a
virtual program: A Pacific Climate Information System. This program
will be aimed at clarifying information needs of decision-makers,
enhancing the ability to produce useful and usable scientific
information, supporting dialogue of decision makers and focusing on
education and capacity building.
Conceptual Model of a Pacific Climate Information System: Science in
Support of Decision-makers. This service would provide a continuous
2-way flow of science and information between scientists and decision
makers -- providing each mechanism for shared learning and joint
problem solving.
Nancy Lewis (University of Hawaii): ENSO Climate Events and Human
Health in the Pacific Islands. =20
Has worked as member of the team that were involved in three related
sets of activities: the Pacific ENSO Applications Center, an ENSO and
Pelagic Fisheries project, and ENSO and Human Health project. =20
Health focus on 21 countires and territories for the period 1973-1994.
Looked at dengue, diarrheal disease, cholera, fish poisoning and
relationship with ENSO, rainfall, temperature, SOI and other climate
factors. Methods included correlations between SPC incidence of disease
data and climate factors, mapping of the relationship, and fuzzy logic
regression models. Results: no clear relationship for diarrheal
disease, fish poisoning and cholera at the regional level. For dengue
fever, at regional level are more common in normal and la-nina years.=20
Dengue outbreaks of 19971998. In French Polynesia and Cooks, outbreak
of dengue before and after extremes of the 1997-1998 El Ni=F1o. For Fiji=
,
in this instance, dengue coincided with ENSO associated drought. =20
Preliminary conclusion: ENSO variability high across the region from
event to event; temporal and spatial scale of the analysis of the
relationship and local level variation very important to understanding
relationship between ENSO events and disease outbreaks. We recommend
the adoption of a risk-profile approach because there a multiple factors
in disease incidence and outbreaks. Such an approach must include site
specific understanding of the dynamics of ENSO events and application of
forecast.=20
The UH ENSO Health Project has become involved with the ENSO
Experiment. This includes about 20 ENSO and health related activities
sponsored by Office of Global Programs.
As noted earlier, the ENSO Health Project was associated with the
Pacific ENSO Applications Center. PEAC was involved in providing
forecasts for the 1997-1998 ENSO warm event. PEAC forecasted the lower
than normal rainfall that resulted from the 19971998 event. As a result
of PEAC's forecast, governmental response to the 1997-1998 event was
very effective given the severity of the event. In the health sector,
the incidence of diarrehal illness actually declined as a result of the
public information campaign mounted as a result of the PEAC warnings.
Climate and Health in Small Island States July 24-25, 2000 in Nadi
sponsored by WHO,=20
Improving our Understanding of the Impacts
Rapporteur: Dr Biman Prasad
The University of the South Pacific, Suva
1. "The influence of Climate Variation and Change on Diarrheal Disease
in the Pacific Islands" by Reena Singh.
The paper pointed out that the availability of drinking water is a
major concern in many of the Pacific Island Nations. Climate variability
and rainfall variability can both cause droughts and floods and droughts
reduce the availability of fresh water supplies, increasing the risk of
diarrhea breakout. There is however limited information and data on the
water resources which makes it difficult to study the direct
relationship between climate and rainfall variability and the incidence
of diarrheal diseases in the Pacific islands. Two studies were
highlighted, one was descriptive study which included the collection of
data from 18 South Pacific Countries. The second study included the
relationship between the level of temperature and the incidence of
diarrhea. A positive association was found between the annual average
temperatures and the rate of diarrhea. These studies highlight the
relationship between climate variation and incidences of diarrheal
diseases. The study is a useful indicator as to the kind of impacts that
climate change could have on human health in the Pacific Islands. It
highlighted the need for more research and reliable data and appropriate
policies to respond to the worst consequences. The Climate Change models
suggest the increases in the frequency and tendency of droughts,
cyclones and rainstorms. In this respect the availability of water to
the people would be a critical factor in ensuring a reduction in
non-communicable water borne diseases.
2. Nakibae Teuatabo " Overview of Kiribati Knowledge of Climate Change
and Sea Level Rise from Scientific and Policy Perspective"
This paper pointed out the knowledge gap between science and policy
perspectives and this is defined as the "known zone and the unknown
zone". It was also pointed out that in cases where countries already
have policies in place, science could be driven by policies. The
challenges for the scientists are to be able to inform policy and
decision-makers the assumptions and caveat that underlie the scientific
results. For the policy makers the challenge is to understand scientific
information. It was pointed out that in Kiribati the policy makers and
the public have difficulty in understanding the uncertainty surrounding
climate change variables.
3. Penehuro Lefale on the "Pacific Meteorological Services Needs
Analysis Project"
The project is reviewing all the national meteorological services and
their capacity to generate reliable date for use by scientists to
predict climate change and its impact on the Pacific Islands. The
project will result in an action plan for the development of the
meteorological services in the region. It was pointed out that the
capability of national governments to ensure that meteorological offices
are adequately resourced is questionable. The project's ultimate aim is
to strengthen the national met offices and increase their capability in
a coordinated manner. The project aims to bring out national draft
reports by 31 of May and also provide a regional synthesis report
summarizing the common problems and prospects.
Breakout session 2: GROUP DISCUSSION, (2- 4 pm) 5/4/00
IMPROVING OUR UNDERSTANDING OF THE IMPACTS
Rapporteur : Reena B.K Singh,
Department of Public Health,Wellington School of Medicine, New Zealand
IMPACT ISSUES
* Bridging gaps between Science and Policy=20
* Recognition of needs in climate change/variability and natural
disasters=20
* Communication policy should put needs across in 'policy makers=20
language' more coherently and clearly
* Policy makers are influenced more by past events such as the 1997-1998
ENSO drought events for example, not so much by future changes in
climate=20
* The effects in Fiji resulted in a loss of 25% of Gross Domestic
Product=20
* How can we predict climate change so policy makers can make relevant
policies per sector?
* 'Science' is uncertain though (scientists try to overcome
uncertainties) but there are "broad range of possibilities of climate
variability.
* Shorter term climate variability is very important in getting better
seasonal prediction and will get better at future predictions.
* Collaboration between Government Departments e.g., Met Office and
Agriculture. Forestry, etc
* Need to take medium to long term view (5-10 years) on education on
climate change and climate variability and sea level rise in school
system=20
* Make the Pacific Island community more familiar with ENSO, so that
they are aware of the effects, and not taken by surprise.
* Availability of information to the people
* Who decides what is the appropriate information to give to the
people?
* SOCIAL ,HEALTH, AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS
* Not just economic but social and implications of climate change are
also involved due to climate variability.
* Links between climate and health not a priority for policy makers at
the moment.
* By finding the links and understanding them, appropriate mitigation
measures can be taken.=20
* Impacts in view of human suffering (health) and social impacts as
well as effects on economies to develop mitigation measures need to be
incorporated into the conference
* Need to look at Health issues for example, if there is diarrhoeal
illness, dengue, or other infectious diseases due to inadequate water
supply,(and also several other issues apart from climate) it results in,
Pacific Islanders taking time of work, losing pay and being unable to
feed their families=20
* Cost of cyclones/droughts will continue to increase as population is
growing for example, in the Marshall Islands case, population doubles
every 20 years.
* Water resources are a problem, and will continue to worsen with
climate variability.
* seem to forget the local community. We know impacts Climate Change on
human health.
* How are we going to prevent human health
* Scale of study right now is mostly regulatory, need to translate to
local level of the Islands themselves.
* Issue of understanding climate change has been unfairly addressed.=20
Try to link science and policy - need balanced approach, not
concentrating on science mainly and passing it across.
* Why do we need a policy on climate change
* Climate is changing and we should have been planning for it for a long
time.
* More integrated approach
* Instead of looking at climate science - look at economic resources and
see how climate change can address that. Local natural resource meeting
at local level to drive (economic) efforts
* Before devolving to local levels, need to know what is existing and
how to use that information.
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